With Syracuse (19-12, 9-9 Atlantic Coast) teetering on the bubble heading into its second round ACC tournament matchup with Pittsburgh on Wednesday, The Daily Orange spoke with NCAA Tournament guru Patrick Stevens. Stevens’ projections appear in The Washington Post and, in 2014, he was the only bracketologist, out of 121, to correctly pick all 68 teams in the field, per Syracuse.com.

Here’s what he had to say about SU’s chances at an NCAA Tournament bid.

The Daily Orange: Not thinking ahead to Wednesday, where do you have Syracuse as we speak?

Patrick Stevens: “At the moment, I have Syracuse as the last at-large team that does not have to go to Dayton. That’s No. 32 on the at large board. A 10 seed at the moment in the West Regional playing Wisconsin, which obviously won’t really happen because those teams already played. But that’s where things would stand at the moment.

“For Syracuse at this point, obviously they could have helped themselves a great deal just by winning that game Saturday at Florida State. I think it would have been a very stress free week. At least in terms of selection had Syracuse won that game. Instead it certainly sizes up that Wednesday to open that round two in D.C. It’s a really, really significant game with Syracuse obviously not completely locked in and Pittsburgh really right on the edge of the field right now. I think you have two teams playing with some desperation.”

D.O.: Do you look at Wednesday’s game as a must-win for Syracuse?

P.S.: “As you compare the profiles, I think Syracuse, even with the two losses to Pittsburgh, has a better profile overall. And I think Pittsburgh pretty much needs to win that game to play its way into the field or at least have a chance. I think Syracuse could get away with losing, potentially. But it probably wouldn’t be very smart to chance it. You’ve already seen this weekend, Wichita State bump somebody, and who knows who that somebody ultimately is, but bump somebody out of the field in all likelihood … I think that steals a bid from the rest of the field.

“I wouldn’t say with 100 percent certainty that Syracuse has to win Wednesday to make the field of 68. But I do think it would make life a whole lot easier for Syracuse to do so.”

 

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D.O.: You mentioned Wichita State as a bid-stealer. Are there any other teams or conference tournaments that SU fans should keep their eyes on that could potentially take away at-large bids?

P.S.: “I’m not sure Monmouth is going to have the goods to make it as an at-large candidate. The bad losses and whatnot is really something that’s going to be held against it … It’s kind of a quiet spot on the schedule this Monday and Tuesday, as it is every year. You’ve got some conference championships but there’s not that many in leagues that are likely to produce multiple bids. I think that when you look at a league like the West Coast Conference, you get a Gonzaga-St. Mary’s final. Not that either of those teams is an overwhelming at-large candidate. But in this particular year, where you’re really sifting around and parsing these profiles and all of them have their weaknesses, there are things to be said for St. Mary’s and Gonzaga that haven’t really messed up a whole lot … That’s probably a league to keep an eye on.”

D.O.: Is Syracuse in with a win on Wednesday?

P.S.: “It would require considerable chaos. It would require a sequence that is a dream scenario for somebody betting on horse racing where there are like six or seven things that have to happen. It would be like, Virginia Tech has to win the ACC and Ohio State has to win the Big 10. I’m just giving a couple examples of teams that would have to surge up and really surprise everybody by winning conference championships this week.

“I think with one more victory, you look at Syracuse’s profile overall. That’s probably going to be enough I think. They’re 6-8 away from home. So if they win that game it’s 7-9. They’d be a team with nine victories against the Top 100. No strength of schedule issues or anything like that … The Georgetown loss is back outside the Top 100 and the St. John’s thing is an eyesore. The thing that still stands out about Syracuse that makes me think it will end up in the field, assuming it can handle some business on Wednesday is that victory at Duke. It’s just a demonstration that it can win in a tough environment. And throw the Texas A&M game, beating a really tough team on a neutral floor. I think those are the two games that stand out for Syracuse that kind of differentiate them from the other teams that are hovering around the edge of the field.”

Published on March 7, 2016 at 10:47 am

Contact Sam: sblum@syr.edu | @SamBlum3