United Kingdom Prime Minister David Cameron has promised to hold a referendum by the end of 2017 to decide the future of the U.K.’s relationship with the European Union. Until then, Cameron will try to negotiate the U.K.’s membership treaty since many British people are unhappy with the political and social restrictions the EU has placed on them.

The Daily Orange interviewed Glyn Morgan, an associate professor of political science who specializes in the EU, and Tod Rutherford, a professor of geography who specializes in economic geography, to discuss what this breakup could mean.

The Daily Orange: Why would the U.K. want to leave the EU?

Glyn Morgan: Some people want to leave, but not others. I think at the moment, the polls suggest a third of the population are strongly in favor, a third are strongly against and a third don’t know. People who are against the EU tend to be on the right of the political spectrum, the conservatives. Half I would say are opposed to the EU because they’re nationalists. They think that Europe represents some awful threat to their national identity.

The other half object to the EU for specific policy reasons and they think the EU over-regulates all business or encourages migration. The migration issue has become particularly salient because there’s a sense that Britain is being swamped by people both from Eastern Europe and also from the wider North African/Middle Eastern region.

Tod Rutherford: Britain has always had a somewhat ambivalent relationship with the EU. When the EU was formed in the 1990s Britain wanted to opt out of certain things. The main controversy in Britain is the social part of the EU treaty, which has rules and regulations, such as standards in the labor market. Since then, there have been on and off tensions around how the EU works. The British have always been suspicious of the phrase “ever closer union” because they don’t like the idea of a political union, which some of the other countries take part in. They don’t like the interference with everyday affairs, but what they do like is the single market, so that’s the big advantage the EU has.

… What’s really tipped it over the last year has been the migrant crisis. It’s made a lot of people in Britain very nervous, especially around potential security or terrorism issues. Interestingly enough, Britain has much more liberal asylum laws than many of the continental European countries, so many migrants have been trying to get to Britain.

… Before he was re-elected, David Cameron proposed a referendum on whether or not they would stay because he wanted to have support from UKIP (United Kingdom Independence Party), but I think now, the last thing he wants is for Britain to leave.

The D.O.: What are the pros and cons of the U.K. leaving?

G.M.: The principal con is that were Britain to exit the EU, it would be likely that Scotland, and maybe even also Wales, would exit Britain. The Scots in particular and also the Welsh are more in favor of the EU than the English, and then you would have a major breakup of the U.K. A British exit could signify the end of Britain.

I’m of the view that the cons far outweigh the pros, and you could only be pro-breakup of Britain if you were a nationalist.

D.O.: How would this affect both the U.K. and the EU economically?

G.M.: It’s not clear whether foreign companies would invest in Britain to the extent that they do. It’s not clear if London, which is a major component of the British economy, could survive a breakup with the EU. Most of the larger corporations in Britain are against a “Brexit,” as they call it.

T.R.: About 50 percent of British exports are to the European continent, and it’s estimated that British trade with the rest of the EU is about 50-60 percent higher than it would be if Britain didn’t have those trade agreements in place. If they do leave, Britain could just try to negotiate a free trade agreement with Europe.

D.O.: How likely is it that the U.K. will leave?

G.M.: My guess is the chances of them leaving are lower than 20 percent. Once the campaign starts, the middle group, who are undecided at the moment, will shift to remain rather than leave. You have to remember that all of the major political parties will be campaigning to remain in the EU and the only party that will campaign opposing it will be the UKIP, and all the mainstream parties will want it to remain.

T.R.: The critics of the “Brexit” are saying that what Britain wants is “to have its cake and eat it too,” and you can’t do that. Europe won’t be thrilled about negotiating any kind of treaty that gives Britain everything it wants without getting anything in return, and in fact loses the funding that Britain has. It also sets a very bad precedent because other nations might say they want to leave too, and then the whole thing falls apart. If they do leave, it could cause a dynamic that no one will be able to control. Those who want to leave may find they aren’t going to get what they want, and it could end in a worse situation.

Published on February 15, 2016 at 9:56 pm

Contact Caroline: cbarthol@syr.edu