Jongwoo Han was stunned when his mother called from South Korea and told him North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Il, was dead. They knew the chairman’s health was not good but never expected to hear this news now.

‘My mom was shocked to know that Chairman Kim died of a heart attack,’ said Han, an assistant professor of political science at Syracuse University who also has friends in South Korea. ‘Many people just worried, ‘What will happen? What will happen in North Korea? What will happen between South and North Korea?”

Han said that for the time being, he thinks North Koreans will be busy taking care of their own domestic problems. The news is a shock to them, and they need to prepare for what’s going to come after this, he said.

The South Korean regime has been reluctant to talk with North Korea, Han said. Therefore, the current situation will prolong the countries’ progress. But he said he doesn’t think it will get any worse. It’s too bad, he said, as there have been exchanges in academics and in other areas between the two countries.

‘I feel very unfortunate that the sudden death of Chairman Kim will prolong the stalemate between North and South Korean engagement,’ Han said.

Han said the relationship between North Korea and the United States is similar to the one the countries had 17 years ago, after the death of Kim Jong Il’s father, Kim Il Sung, in July 1994. One month after his death, North Korea and the United States were able to engage in high-level talks to solve the problem of nuclear programs in North Korea, Han said.

Before Kim Il Sung’s death, the relationship between the two countries was heading toward normalization, Han said. The United States and North Korea were supposed to meet later this month to resume their high-level talks, but now it may stall for a while, he said.

Han said this stall might be an opportunity for the two countries to make progress with their relationship. Even though the emerging situation in North Korea will stop these negotiations, there may be a breakthrough in six months or in the near future, he said.

Stuart Thorson, a political science and international relations professor at SU, is currently in Seoul, South Korea. He said Kim Jong Il’s death has caught people there off guard.

‘I think there was a sense that his health had stabilized a bit and thus the timing of his death came as a surprise,’ he said in an email.

Thorson said the current relationship between North and South Korea is not good. But once North Korea has had time to mourn, the situation offers an opportunity ‘to make sincere, meaningful and positive overtures in such areas as food aid to the North.’

U.S. policy toward North Korea has been closely linked to South Korean policy, Thorson said. He said he hopes that both U.S. and South Korean administrations will see this as a time to try and engage North Korea in areas beyond national security.

‘Probably the most important thing, in the short run, is to avoid actions which might be interpreted as provocative,’ Thorson said, ‘and, at the same time, try to find some acceptable way to make a substantively positive statement to the North.’

Kim Jong Un, Kim Jong Il’s son, will be the successor, Han said. However, Kim Jong Un made his political debut in September 2010 and has not been in politics for a long time since.

‘We feel like one era is ending in North Korean politics,’ Han said.

Han said he thinks there will be a collective leadership in North Korean politics for a while, as Kim Jong Il’s younger sister and her husband are highly ranked in the power command chain.

Thorson, on the other hand, said the big question is how politics will change once Kim Jong Un takes over for his father. The good news is that Kim Jong Un appears to have been educated in Switzerland and has obtained experiential knowledge of the world outside of North Korea, he said.

Kim Jong Un is taking over a country different than the one his father did, Thorson said. His father also had more time to prepare for leadership. This means that he must avoid acting in a way that might be interpreted as provocative, but at the same time offer humanitarian assistance and educational support, he said.

Said Thorson: ‘I think it will be important for world leaders to give (North Korea) time to mourn the loss of Kim Jong Il.’

mjberner@syr.edu

Published on December 20, 2011 at 12:00 pm

Contact Maddy: mjberner@syr.edu